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Thursday, April 29, 2004
I tend to try to avoid making predictions and I can understand why. My latest prediction "Abdul Aziz Al Hakim gets president of prime minister (whichever he prefers), Adnan Pachachi gets to be prime minister or president for being a Sunni moslem. Massoud Barzani and Jalal Talebani have to decide which is a vice president, one hopes without bloodshed. a Fourth Shi'ite completes the team ( Mohammed Bahr al-Ulloum or Ibrahim al-Jaafari)" was wrong wrong wrong.
According to As Zaman as translated and summarized by Juan Cole, Brahimi and the Bush administration are agreeing on a team of "technocrats" meaning non politicians without post transition ambitions. Also according to Juan Cole, the leading politician candidate for prime minister is Ibrahim al-Jaafari who came in tied for second in my confused rankings of Shi'ite politicians.
The ranking of politicians appears to be scheduled for after the elections (what a novel idea this Brahimi guy has). My prediction might still prove right with a delay until January. As Red Sox fans say "Waitill next year".
I still think Sistani in person would make a good transitional president preferably actually elected with a ration card based vote. My hope is that he is sincere in not believing he should be in office and so really would be transitional.
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