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Wednesday, October 06, 2004

October 6th average post debate poll including Rasmussen and The Economist

First three are 10 post debate polls on the front page of
Counting multicandidate likely voter polls if available the average is
Bush 48% Kerry 45.9 % Nader about 1.5%. To conclude the race is tied one would have to assume that Nader's support will hold and Bush will win slightly less than one fourth of undecided voters.

Rasmussen has the race at Bush 47.2 Kerry 46.9 an dThe Economist/YouGov poll has Bush 46 Kerry 47 so including them give averages Bush 47.77 Kerry 46.14
and one would need to assume that others will get about 1.5% and Bush will get 32% of the undecided voters to conclude that the race is tied.

Also if two candidate numbers are used when available one gets
Bush 48.2% Kerry 46.7 % or with Rasmussen and YouGov Bush 47.93% Kerry 46.74%.
The standard error of the difference bush minus kerry due to sampling error is on the order of 1%

Basically the race really really is tied right now.

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