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Monday, October 25, 2004

I predict Kerry will be elected president.

There is a chance of a major event, but I will risk my prediction now.

Popular Vote
Kerry 49.8 % Bush 49.2 % Nader about 1 %
Electoral Vote
Kerry 304 Bush 234

I guess there will be controversy, but, given my electoral vote predictions, I predict Kerry will be declared the winner the night of November 2 (or early AM November 3).

I guess the result in Florida will come as a surprise to many.

My guesse s for the House and Senate depend almost totally on MyDD
plus wishful thinking.

I predict
50 Democrats 49 Republicans and James Jeffords I votes Dem

212 Democrats 222 Republicans and Bernie Sanders Socialist votes Dem

Sen Leahy must be pretty lonely as a non independent in the Vermont delegation.

State level polls have been very stable. I am mainly using 2.oo4k polls. 2.004k presents polls of registered voters if available. This means that they overstate support for Kerry. However, undecided voters tend to split against the incumbent. I follow Charlie Cook who should know. He gives as a low range 2/3 vs 1/3 so Kerry gains 1/3 of the undecideds who are about 5.7% of those polled so 1.9 % more for Kerry . I expect (wishful thinking) an effect of new registration, ACT bias in telephone polls etc etc etc to cancel the likely voter - registered voter effect. It averages only about 1.5 to 2 % in national polls (even including Gallup).

IIAC (if I added correctly) my electoral vote prediction corresponds to guessing Kerry wins Ohio, Florida, Hawaii, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Wisconsin and loses Iowa.
That is compared to Gore ddrops Iowa and picks up Ohio and New Hampshire and his victory in Florida is recognised. This means I predict Kerry to win Florida, Hawaii, and New Mexico even though he is slightly behind on average in the polls and to win Wisconsin where the average poll post 10/10 is exactly tied (same mix of undecided pattern and wishful thinking as for popular vote). I just don't believe the Hawaii polls.

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