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Tuesday, October 05, 2004

Oct 4 average poll on the first page of polling
Bush 48% Kerry 45.8%. Assuming Nader gets about 2 %, to conclude the race is tied, one would have to assume that about one quarter of undecided voters will vote for Bush. I use multicandidate likely voter polls when available. Rasmussen reports has Bush by 2.5%, so including it would make virtually no difference. The swing from the debate is about 3%.

There is also a poll of voting intentions of debate watchers " Overall, 49 percent of the 725 registered voters who watched the debate said in the Los Angeles Times poll that they would cast ballots for Kerry, and 47 percent would choose Bush."

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