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Sunday, October 24, 2004

Bush 47.3% Kerry 46 % standard error of difference about 0.6%

is the population weighted average across states of the average poll taken on or after 10/10 or the most recent poll if none taken after 10/10(only one observation each for tracking polls).

Update: I had Bush 47.3 % until I found 4 polls from New Jersey that I should have included, then briefly at 47.2 until I found another error. The standard error of the difference is almost exactly equal to the MOE for each candidate (MOE as reported by pollsters) because they each get about 50% of the votes and together get fairly close to all of the votes (93.2 is close to 100).

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