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Saturday, October 16, 2004

Meta meta analysis metastesizes

Yesterday published 3 polls from Florida : Kerry by 4, Bush by 3 and tied.
This has a dramatic effect on Andrea Moro's election simulator, which now gives 58.85% as Kerry's chance of winning ! Andrea Moro e-mailed me that he was getting about 10,000 visits a day. I bet that number will increase sharply now.

Sam Wang still has Kerry's chance of winning of only 28%. Partly, I think, he updates less freequently. Also he averages polls so he updates less sharply when he updates.

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