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Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Mitch Mcconnell is in trouble

Rasmussen reports that the Senate Minority leader is behind in a poll for re-election

Election 2008: Kentucky Senate
Kentucky Senate: Lunsford (D) 49% McConnell (R) 44%
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
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The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the Kentucky Senate race shows Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford with a five percentage point lead over long-time Republican Senator Mitch McConnell. The poll, conducted just two days after Lunsford won the Democratic nomination, shows the challenger with 49% of the vote while McConnell earns 44%.

I told you he was in trouble.

In Kentucky, Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell has "double digit leads over
both both Democratic primary frontrunner Bruce Lunsford and his nearest primary opponent in that race, Louisville businessman Greg Fischer...

Against Lunsford, McConnell garners 48 percent support among the 600 "likely voters" polled to 36 percent for the Democrat. In that contest, 16 percent of respondents were undecided.

Against Fischer, the results are similar. McConnell grabs 47 percent to Fischer's 35 percent, with 18 percent undecided."

McConnell has less than 50% support even though the Democrats don't even have a candidate yet. This poll does not suggest that McConnell is the solid favorite.

Now it looks like the Democrats will nominate Obama and that Obama is unpopular in Kentucky. This might help McConnell. Still, I'm surprised I haven't heard more about the race (except from the always optimistic Kos).

The latest poll amounts to an unusually large nomination bounce for Lumsford, but it isn't all that extraordinary. I think the large number of possible Democratic pick-ups distracted attention from Kentucky.

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