Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Indiana Exit Polls

They won't release numbers which make it easy to figure out who would win according to the exit polls.

They do have numbers on for whom did the voter vote as a function of what issue they considered most important


Which issue is most important facing the country?

Clinton Obama
The economy 54% 45%
The war in Iraq 46% 54%
Health care 13% 49%

what ?!?! Obama way ahead among those who think health care is most important (the one issue where he is wrong and she is right according to me and, I would think, people who care most about the issue)?

Was Mickey Kantor (or the person who dubbed the fake voice over and I am not talking about the N word which is by definition wrong) right about the people of Indiana ?

Well maybe about the people who typed up the page to which I linked

The first two rows add up to 99% and 100%. They show for whom people say they voted as a function of the issue which they said was most important. I think the same is true of the 49% for Obama in row 3. The 13% is, however, I think the fraction who said health care is most important and I voted for Clinton and not, as it should be, that fraction divided by the fraction who said health care is most important (which I guess is 13/(0.51)% so the correct number is 51%.

Now what fraction say the economy is most important ?

Two-thirds of Democratic primary voters in Indiana and nearly as many in North Carolina said the economy is the most important issue facing the nation.


Only about one in five in each state said Iraq was the top issue,

I may be mixing exit polls but that works out to Clinton by 4.6%

Oh my what a coincidence

Which candidate do you think is most likely to improve the economy?
Hillary Clinton 50%
Barack Obama 46%

Clinton by 4.

I am actually willing to make a prediction that the exit polls will show Clinton by 4 or 5 % No guess about actual votes.


"Results for the following questions will be added over the next hour:"

and I'm going to bed.

Update: 64 minutes later.

I couldn't sleep. CNN has exit poll results up (warning Kos sent people (including me) to CNN so it takes a long time to load). They have Clinton winning among men by 2% and among women by 6%. 45% men 55% women means Clinton up by 4.2 %

and you didn't read it here first unless you live in Roma and use fasweb (no guess as to who) or live in Walnut Creek California (that means you Brad).

Even Drudge didn't have the numbers up before me, and I don't just make them up.

Now recall, I made no prediction about the actual vote.

a hah

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