State Poll update from Race 2004

for battleground states. Kerry has pulled ahead in Wisconsin. His lead is not statistically significant, but, I think, given that undecided voters split for the challenger, he should win Wisconsin. Kerry's lead in Ohio has narrowed slightly. I am sorry to say thatt this is partly because I counted a L.A. Times poll twice yesterday (LV and RV for same survey). I also made a similar mistake with Wisconsin, but it didn't affect the average as much. Data are from www.race2004.net.

My reading is OBL that is the only barrier left between Kerry and the White House is Osama Bin Laden. OBL Only Bin Laden can save Bush and it would take more than a video.

Average of polls at race2004.com since 10/20
Bush	Kerry			S.E. Dif		N
49,28	44,78		Arkansas	1,90		5
49,38	45,28		Colorado	1,67		6
48,23	46,56		Florida	0,93		19
46,00	45,40		Hawaii	4,05		1
48,07	46,45		Iowa	1,28		11
44,64	49,19		Michigan	1,42		9
45,20	47,23		Minnesota	1,54		7
48,86	46,09		Nevada	1,58		7
42,17	48,83		Jersey	1,62		6
49,28	44,68		New M	1,86		5
47,07	47,53		Ohio	1,25		10
46,36	48,93		Penn	0,95		17
46,55	47,62		Wisconsin	1,70		6
Average of polls at race2004.com since 10/25 Bush Kerry S.E. Dif N
50,47	45,30		Arkansas	2,43		3
50,30	43,23		Colorado	2,39		3
48,37	46,78		Florida	1,16		12
47,86	46,93		Iowa	1,50		8
45,40	48,38		Michigan	1,79		6
45,27	47,43		Minnesota	1,70		6
49,60	46,43		Nevada	2,11		4
42,00	48,33		Jersey	2,10		3
49,33	44,90		New M	2,09		4
47,21	47,87		Ohio	1,48		7
46,97	48,95		Penn	1,17		11
46,20	48,12		Wisconsin	1,90		5