Average poll of the 11 on the front page of www.pollingreport.com October 13
Bush 47.64% Kerry 46.09 % Nader & other about 1.5 %. Assuming Nader and other get around 1.5% one would have to assume that Bush will win about one third of undecided voters to conclude that the race is tied. That is the race is really really close.

I get the very strong impression that differences pollster to pollster are very persistent and larger than true changes day to day plus sampling error.