Average poll post 10/10 for each state. Data from http://www.electoralvote.com and http://2.004k.com


Critical state run down. I will assume that the polls are OK. A key issue is that 2.004k.com reports polls of registered voters if available. Another key issue is that undecided voters tend to vote for the challenger in the end. I tend to assume that the second issue is more important, but that may be wishful thinking.

Very brief key state run down. Kerry is marginally ahead in Ohio and Minnesota. Given the undecided voter pattern, I would guess that Kerry will win Ohio and Minnesota unless something big happens. Kos guesses Rove guesses the same thing. Florida is way too close to call. New Mexico leans Bush but the undecideds breaking for Kerry might make the difference. Iowa leans Bush. Wisconsin is, on average, a perfect tie. The undecided voter pattern suggests that Kerry should win Wisconsin and with it the White House.

Kerry has to worry that these polls aren't as good as they claim, that a dramatic event could change everything and that the Republicans could cheat.

Kerry Bush no. s.e. difference

Alabama 32 56 1 4.2
Alaska 30 57 1 4
Arizona 42.3 50 3 2.5
Arkansas 45.3 49.3 3 2.5
California 53.7 41.7 3 2.3
Colorado 44 49.2 6 1.7
Conneticut 47 38 1 3
Delaware 45 38 1 3.9
D.C. 78 11 1 4
Florida 46.2 46.9 8 1.3
Georgia 39.8 54.3 4 2.2
Hawai 42.6 43.3 1 4
Idaho 30 59 1 4
Illinois 53 42 1 4
Indiana 38.5 56 2 2.7
Iowa 45.3 47.8 7 1.5
Kentucky 38 57 1 4.1
Louisiana 31.9 50 1 4
Maine 51 45 1 3,9
Maryland 51 42 1 5
Massach. 50 36 1 3.5
Michigan 47.8 44.1 7 1.6
Minnesota 46.2 44.7 6 1.7
Mississippi 42 51 1 4
Missouri 45.3 49.7 3 2.3
Montana 34 56 2 3.2
Nebraska 30 61 1 4
Nevada 43 51.3 3 2.3
N Hampshr 47 55.6 5 2
N Jersey 47.6 42.3 7 1.5
N Mexico 46 47.5 2 2.3
N York 58 35 1 4.1
N Carolina 47 50 1 4
N Dakota 33 62 1 4
Ohio 47.6 46.4 12 1.2
Oklahoma 33.3 59.8 4 2.1
Oregon 49.5 45 8 1.7
Penn 47.3 44.4 7 1.3
Rhode I 56 36 1 4.1
S Carolina 42 55 1 4.2
S Dakota 42 52 1 4.5
Tennessee 38.5 55 2 2.8
Texas 37 60 1 4.1
Utah 27 64 1 4
Vermont 53 40 1 5
Virginia 46 50 1 3.9
Washington 50.3 45.3 3 2.5
W Virginia 44.5 48 2 2.8
Wisconsin 46.2 46.2 9 1.4
Wyoming 29 65 1 4

update:Indiana corrected