Friday, October 29, 2004

 

Average of state polls taken after 10/10 as of 10/29

Critical state rundown. Given the pattern that undecideds split roughly 2:1 for the challenger, I predict that Kerry will win Florida, Hawaii, Minnesota, New Hamprshire. Ohio and Wisconsin. I predict Bush will win Iowa and New Mexico.
The one change in predictions is for New Mexico.

……………….Kerry… Bush… number of polls

Alabama…… 32..… 56..… 1
Alaska……. 30..… 57..… 1
Arizona…… 43..… 50..… 4
Arkansas….. 45.8… 49.4… 5
California… 53.5… 42.3… 4
Colorado…. 44..… 49.2… 6
Conneticut… 47..… 38..… 1
Delaware….. 45..… 38..… 1
D.C………. 78..… 11..… 1
Florida…… 46.1… 47..… 17
Georgia…… 39.8… 54.3… 4
Hawai…….. 43.8… 44.7 … 2
Idaho…….. 30..… 59..… 1
Illinois….. 52..… 41.7… 3
Indiana…… 39..… 56… 2
Iowa…….. 45.8… 47.9… 10
Kansas……. 34….. 58….. 2
Kentucky….. 38..… 57.5. 2
Louisiana…. 34.6… 52..… 3
Maine…….. 50.5… 42..… 2
Maryland….. 53.5… 40.5… 2
Massachusetts 50..… 36..… 1
Michigan….. 48.2… 44,4… 8
Minnesota…. 45.9… 44.6… 8
Mississippi.. 42..… 51..… 1
Missouri….. 45.1… 49.9… 7
Montana…… 35..… 56….. 2
Nebraska…. 32..… 61….. 1
Nevada……. 44....… 49.5… 6
New Hampshire 47.5… 44.8… 6
New Jersey… 47.25… 42.1… 8
New Mexico… 45.3… 47.7… 3
New York….. 56..… 36.5. 2
North Carolina 44.7..… 52….. 3
North Dakota. 33..… 62….. 1
Ohio……… 47.8… 46.6… 16
Oklahoma…. 33.2… 60..… 5
Oregon……. 49.5… 44.9….. 10
Pennsylvania. 48.4… 44.9… 13
Rhode Island. 56..… 36….. 1
South Carolina 40.3..… 55….. 3
South Dakota. 39..… 53.5….. 1
Tennessee…. 38.5… 55….. 2
Texas…….. 37..… 60….. 1
Utah……… 27..… 64….. 1
Vermont…… 53..… 40….. 1
Virginia….. 46..… 50….. 1
Washington… 50.3… 45.3… 3
West Virginia 44.5… 48….. 2
Wisconsin…. 46.4… 46.3… 10
Wyoming…… 29..… 65….. 1

Average poll post 10/10 for each state. Data from http://www.electoralvote.com and http://2.004k.com

posted by Robert permalink and comments4:39 AM