Bush 47.8 % Kerry 46.4 % population weighted average state level poll from October (max one per agency latest in Sept if none in Oct.



at 23:52 Rome time updated from: Bush 47.9 % Kerry 46.4 % standard error of difference about 0.5%
is an estimate of national popular vote based on a population weighted of state level polls from October (max one per agency and most recent in September if none in October).

This means Kerry would probably marginally win the popular vote if the election were today under the assumption that Nader gets about 1.5% and about two thirds of currently undecided voters vote for the challenger.