October 8th average poll on the first page of pollingreport.com
Bush 47 8/13 % Kerry 46 5/13 % if others get around 1.5% one would have to assume that Bush will win slightly over one third of votes of undecided to decide that the race is currently tied.
That is, it is really very very close to tied. Bush-Kerry = 1 3/13% with a standard error of about 1% so 95% interval from Bush ahead by 3 3/13 % to Kerry ahead by 10/13 %.

Update: 21:05 Rome time: One new poll and one poll updated. The average of 14 post debate polls on the front page of pollingreport.com is now Bush 47.5 %Kerry 46 5/14 %
assuming others will get about 1.5% one would need to assume that Bush will win 24/ 65ths of the votes of undecided voters to conclude that the race is tied.