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Sunday, March 30, 2008

Game On in Zimbabwe

It is clear that Morgan Tsvangirai has won the Zimbabwean Presidential election and almost equally clear that Robert Mugabe will try to steal it.

The key piece of evidence for both propositions is the extraordinary delay in the reporting of official results.


unofficial vote totals were posted at most polling stations soon after counts there were completed, and were spread through the rumor mill, passed along on cellphones from one part of the country to another. Independent election observers and journalists who saw some of the results confirmed what many ordinary people were reporting: that the opposition appeared to have won by wide margins at the polling sites they saw, including some places considered traditional strongholds of the government.

Thus it is too late to steal the election in a way which will not be obvious to Zimbabweans and foreign observers.

The evidence that Mugabe will attempt to steal the election is not subtle either

No results were officially announced by evening, 24 hours after the end of voting. Independent election monitors said riot police and other security forces were deployed in densely populated suburbs of the capital, Harare, a traditional base of opposition to President Robert Mugabe, 84. [snip]

In past elections, officials have released results as they were tallied by district, often within hours of the close of voting

I think we will know soon how determined the Zimbabwean people are. If they are as determined as they seem to be, it will depend on the army. Sad to say revolutions generally do.

Since I saw no hope for Zimbabwe as of yesterday, this post is wildly optimistic.

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