Sunday, April 09, 2006

Odds update

The betting odds on the upcoming Italian election (which starts later today) are still being updated.

Best Bet has odds from bookmakers and a parimutual market

The bookies give Prodi 1/4 Berlusconi 5/2
ignoring the bookies cut that would mean Prodi wins with probability 0.8 and Berlusconi with probability 0.286. the probabilities add up to more than 1 because the bookies gotta eat. Prodi/(prodi+berlusconi) = 74%.

The parimutual odds are almost exactly actuarially fair
Prodi 0.26/1 Berlusconi 3.7/1 corresponding to
Prodi wins with probability 0.794 Berlusconi wins with probability 0.213
Prodi/(prodi+berlusconi) = 78.8%

I wonder why anyone bets with bookies ? Maybe betfair is a scam and they take your money and don't give you any if you win.

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