Monday, April 10, 2006

20 minutes to showtime update

Looks to me like people betting in London don't know anythiing I don't know. Maybe someone is betting using inside information on exit polls, but, if so, they are quite restrained because the odds are similar to last nights odds

betfair

Prodi pays 1.19
Berlusconi pays 6.2
Any other pays 50

corresponding to a probability that Prodi wins if betfair were actuarily fair of
Prodi wins with probability 84%
Berlusconi wins with probability 16%
Someone else wins with probability 2%

betfair is thus keeping 2% of money bet. Corrected probabilities for this and assuming Prodi or Berlusconi wins implies

Prodi wins with probability 84%
Berlusconi wins with probability 16%

(that was easy).

I'd say that, if anyone is betting on inside information, he or she is betting somewhere else.

update: 10 minutes to show time. Other sites have blacked out Italy (maybe because I have an Italian IP address). I haven't found any other quotes. I may have to wait for the exit polls. Gonna be a long 10 minutes.

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