I have a very very high opinion of Joshua Marshall. However, he seems to have some trouble with metaphors. Yesterday, he was defending the perfectly standard and reasonable practice of checking if different people's versions of events confirm each other by comparing it to the dubious practice of dropping outlier polls.

Today he makes a very convincing argument that the best strategy for Kerry for the moment is to lie low and let Bush destroy himself. Marshall's point is that if Kerry attacks Bush he will strengthen the partisan loyalty of Republican voters who are deciding that Bush is incompetent (Marshall puts it better). Later the race will heat up so all issues will be partisan but now by being gentlemanly Kerry can keep the focus on Bush not on the campaign.

This is an excellent essay (as usual) but it contains a terrible metaphor (second in 2 days)-- "Let's think of this battle as a prize fight, with both men in the ring. If the other guy is about to collapse because of some self-inflicted injury, what do you do?"

What ? In a prize fight, when your opponent is near collapse you press in and finish him (unless the referee or compasion stops you). People lose their ability to hit before they lose the ability to stand up for 10 seconds. I mean I've never even been in a fist fight and I hate watching boxing matches but I know that. Also who ever heard of a self inflicted injury in the ring ? Well I did but that was a guy celebrating after he won. Kerry should leave Bush alone on stage because Bush is flopping. The analogy with boxing in which what matters is what you do not whether the audience likes you for doing it is unconvincing but, worse, if it were convincing it would convince me that Marshall's sound argument is unsound.

Here my guess is that the metaphor is garbled because it was censored. My wild guess is that Marshall thought of writing "what do you do if an enemy points a pistol to his head and starts to pull the trigger ? You duck for cover, because he might shoot you" This makes sense assuming you are a coward or you hate hte guy so much you want him dead. However, Marshll would not want to suggest that Kerry is a coward or that he wants Bush dead. The relevant metaphor that came to my mind is vulnerable to malicious literalism.

My suggestion is stay away from metaphors for a day. Marshall's reasoning and writing are generally excellent enough that he can do without them.

By the way, major catch here http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/week_2004_05_16.php#002961
Brilliant as usual.