Wednesday, April 06, 2011

Wisconsin Supreme Court election update

They seem to have gone to sleep over in Wisconsin. I did too but now I'm awake.
The current state of the supreme court election is that 3,596 of 3,630 precincts have reported and the incumbent conservative Walker ally is Prosser is ahead of the challenger Kloppenberg by 733,074 to 732489, that is by 585 votes. The precincts which haven't reported are almost all in counties which went heavily for Kloppenberg.

I calculated a crude predictin by extrapolation assuming that votes in precincts which haven't reported will be equal to the county average over precincts which have reported. This requires two approximations, first that the fraction won by Prosser is about the same and second that there are about the same number of votes in each precinct withing a county. Importantly, it is reported that some precincts which have "reported" haven't reported absentee ballots.

Anyway, I extrapolate that Kloppenberg will gain 1857.13 votes on Prosser and so win by 1,272 votes which is about 0.09% of the extrapolated total.

I confidently predict a recount.

norep Prosser Kloppen norep/rep Pr-KL
6 Ashland 1037 2504 0.2727 -400.09
2 Crawfor 1689 2428 0.08 -59.12
1 Dane 48627 133513 0,004048583 -343.67
2 Dunn 3790 4649 0,052631579 -45.21
1 Jefferson 12860 9365 0,025 87.38
1 Juneau 2337 2546 0,035714286 -7.46
12 Milwauki 95129 125090 0,025 -758.51
8 Sauk 6166 7625 0,258064516 -376.52
1 Taylor 3602 2266 0,034482759 46.07
34 so far 733074 732489 pred p-k -1,857.13
-1,272.13
-0.09%

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