Thursday, April 14, 2011

The Gallup Poll on the Budget Deal is Very Interesting

It has been discussed by Krugman, Klein and Drum.

It shows that the Republican Party has this little problem that most US adults and most independents absolutely disagree with them. 59% of US adults overall and 60% of independents want congress to increase taxes on families with incomes over $250,000.

Same old same old. This is a very typical result. That's why Congress hasn't done so since 1993 (when the fraction thinking the rich paid les s than their fair share was around 80%). The Republican proposal to make Bush tax cuts permanent and then slash taxes for the rich a whole lot more does not look popular. 37% of self identified Republicans want to increase taxes on the rich.

Just a little bit of discussion of actual cuts have eliminated the US enthusiasm for cutting domestic spending. US adults split 47% against further significant cuts to 45% in favor. 48% of independents oppose singificant additional cuts (as just proposed by Obama by the way).

13% want a complete overhall of Medicare. 14% of self described Republicans support a complete overhall. Ryan hasn't won over a signficant minority of his own party.
The result which amazes even the most jaded Republican moccker is that 33% of Republicans things the governement should "not try to control the costs of Medicare." I admit I am surprised too, but we shouldn't be. The Republicans shellacked the Democrats because their base turned out to punish the Democrats for trying to control Medicare costs.

But the really interesting question is how could a party with a death wish win so many elections. I think the reason is that self identified Democrats don't consider Republicans the enemy and self identified Republicans consider Democrats the enemy. An extremely partisan base is good for a party.

The result I found most interesting was one so tackily horse racy that pollsters rarely ask it. Who won ?

Democrats just won't paly this game with many more calling it a "victory for both" than a victory for just one party. In contrast more Republicans consider the result to be a victory for one party rather than for both.

Democrats are sure that Republicans and Democrats can work together for the common good. 20% of self identified Democrats even think the parties did so in the with the horrible job destroying continuing resolution. Republicans are less likely to think this.

I think that's why the Republican party wins elections even though ordinary Republicans oppose the party's agenda.

This works especially for mid term elections and fighting over who won the election.

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