Wednesday, November 08, 2006

I am obsessively following the official unofficial numbers for the Virginia senate race
(Makaka vs Webb).

At the moment, with 97.42% of precincts reporting it is *still* too close to call.
Allen is ahead by 4,722 votes but the remaining few precincts to report include precincts in Richmond City (way for Webb), one in Arlington county (so way for Webb tht one precinct can be worth net hundreds of votes) and, mostly, Prince William county, which really ought to be more for Webb since it is in Northern Virginia and I have actually set foot in it.

Update: midnight EST Allen's lead is now 3,163 or 0.14 % of votes cast (recall the Italian center left won by 0.07% and don't mentione 2000). The new reports are mostly Prince William county and some from Richmond. Assuming that non reporting precincts have vote proportions equal to those alaready counted, I calculate Allen by 700, way back when he was ahead by 4,722 I calculated Allen by 600, so things are (sadly) on course.

update 2: Blogged too soon. Results coming in. at 12:05 Allen was ahead by good old 0.07% at 12:10 by 0.08% = 1,868. My rough calculation implies Allen by 100 (that would be 0.005 %). Do *not* mention 2000 to me.

Update 3: Well that was a pause that refreshed. Note a calculation under silly assumptions is not a prediction. Note also that with 100% of precincts reporting that Webb has 2,726 more votes than Allen.

Absentee ballots, especially overseas absentee ballots like mine, might reelect Allen. The numbers are horribly similar to numbers I saw in 2000 (and more pleasantly similar to percentages I saw in 2006).

Wowwwwww. Got to try this disconnect from the internet approach to election watching more often.

update 4 unofficially officially 0.37 % of precincts haven't reported and Webb is only 0.33% ahead so it is possible that Allen could be ahead when all precincts report (rotflmao).

Update 3 stands corrected.

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