Sunday, November 04, 2012

America's Worst Pollster

Who will win the hard fought contest to be declared America's worst pollster ?  Will it be the artists formerly known as Zogby interactive (now called JZ Analytics and likely to have a new name in 2014 so someone takes them seriously) ?  Look I love them, they pioneered internet based polling which strikes me as quite possibly the worst idea since President Dewey was elected, but I have to call it for

Baydoun Foster McCollum White (and associates don't forget the associates) who just released a poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by 1% in Michigan. 
The RCP average (including them) is 0 up 3.8% the 4 other RCP averaged polls average to Obama up 5% the difference is (borderline) statistically significant at the 5% level and that is one poll vs 4).  Wow.

Now that takes guts.  They also earned the coveted double asterix ** for not included editorial decision from Josh Marshall.

I'm afraid to read the internals.  I half expect that they find that Michigan voters disapprove of the auto bailout.

If they get this one right, I'll eat my hat.  OK I don't own a hat, but I'll buy one just to eat it.

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