Nexus and The Olive Tree II

Nexus does exit polls and projections for Italian state television (RAI). This is one example of Berlusconi being well Berlusconian, since before they became neutral journalists the guys at Nexus worked for Berlusconi's campaigns. Last election, I noted that Nexus projections Looked better for the center right than the actual vote.

They've done it again. The 4th Nexus projection showed a tiny lead of 0.4% for Marrazzo (center left) over Storace (center right) in Lazio. The 4th Nexus projection showed a dead heat in Puglia.

Now the 9th projection shows Marrazzo ahead by 3.7 % and Vendola (center left) ahead by 1.9 %. At this point, most precincts have reported so the projection will be close to the actual vote.

That's two rounds of elections with early projections way wrong in the way one would guess given Nexus' past political affiliation.