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Friday, June 06, 2014

I told Kevin Drum So

Kevin Drum Just revised and updated his prediction of how many people gained insurance coverage due to the ACA
Latest Gallup Numbers Confirm 10-12 Million Newly Insured Under Obamacare [skip] you're probably up to 12-13 million who are newly insured under Obamacare.
I comment. April 2 you forecast 10 million newly insured by December 31 2013 well below the CBO's original forecast. I said hooey. I think you were, in part, relying on Gallup estimates for the first quarter (the 15.6 in your graph) and very conservatively extrapolating.

I guessed the original CBO guess would be about right (bewared of Doug). Now you agree. Your calculations from then say 12 million adults (your guess was 2 million under 26ers were already covered due the ACA in 2013). Clearly the number of children newly covered when their parents get medicaid or private is well over a million. Your 10 million by Dec 31 guess is no longer operative. I told you so

Also this isn't what we get from the ACA in 2014. Medicaid signups continue. The Medicaid rolls increased by about 1 million in April. Almost all of this must be due to the ACA (one would expect less than 100,000 due to population growth etc).

I admit I was wrong (link above). I thought the CBO guess (13 million in 2014) would turn out to be about right. Clearly it was an underestimate. Counting under 26ers and children the number is clearly well over 13 million now. Also it is growing quickly (by almost a million last month).

Worth the price ? Hmm Surtax -- fine by me. Cut back the Medicair advantage boondoggle very fine by me, tax Cadillac insurance very fine by me, Medicair advisory panel uh not just advisory excellent. The costs seem to be excellent reforms all by themselves.

Of course the real cost was keeping the Senate busy during the few months of a filibuster proof majority. Also the 2010 elections. I'd say well worth the political cost, but that's not obvious.

update: Just here. Drum is anchored. He said 10 million and he is reluctant to admit he was wrong. So a Gallup estimate of 10 million adults since 2013 (in addition to the 2 million by 2013) becomes 10-12 million in his headline. That doesn't work. His old calculations (no new relevant data) say 12 million adults plus millions of children. After reviewing the Gallup numbers, he gets to "you're probably up to 12-13 million who are newly insured under Obamacare." The "10-" in the title is absulultey not justified by the text of the post.

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