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Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Get the Lead Out II

About a year ago, I noted the hypothesis that lead from leaded gasoline causes violent crime. It has been proposed that the US shift to unleaded which began in 1973 caused the decline in violent crime in the US in the 90s.

This hypothesis suggests a later peak of crime in the UK which began the shift to unleaded later. I predicted a peak in violent crime in around 2008.

So how is that prediction holding up ?

Back then the most recently avaible data were from 2007/8. So I'm off to check the 2008/9 figures.

(tense pause)

According to a victimization survey there was a statistically insignificant 4% decline in violent crime in the past year (they don't use calender years so it is 2008/9 vs 2007/8 the study was published in July. Police recorded violent crime declined 6%.

I predicted about zero, so OK so far.

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