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Saturday, July 04, 2015

The East is Red ... Ink ?

I have no idea. The Chinese kept growing at an amazing rate while developed work economies crashed then stagnated. Of all the scary thoughts, the most frightening was that China might be in a bubble which would burst. This fear was supported by the rapidly rising debt to GDP ratio, the incredible rate of construction (as much cement as poured in US history has been poured in China in the past ... five minutes or something). The fear is that everything looks fine then just falls down.

I am reminded of this photograph from Shanghai

To me, the really alarming part is the still standing apartment building in the background. It is identical to the one which fell over. I now wonder if the still standing building has any tenants. Was it condemned or was the unfortunate posture of its twin considered no big deal.

I think this is the key question about China. We might consider the recent crash of stock prices to be a mere correction, a minor stumble on the People's Republic's march to the glorious workers' paradise of capitalism. Or it might be the beginning of a crash that dwarfs the US in 2008 or the rest of East Asia in 1997.

I think it depends on whether the twin office tower in the background of the photo has tenants. If the shock of not everything always going up up up kills the Chinese confidence fairy we are in trouble.

If the people not personally bankrupted decide it was no big deal which has nothing to do with them, we will be OK for a while.

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