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Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Generic House Polls

Something odd seems to be happening in US public opinion. Pollsters are shifting from polls of registered voters to polls of likely voters. Given demographics and the enthusiasm gap, I expected the Republican lead in the House generic ballot to increase. Until recently, that seemed to be happening right on schedule.

Since then there have been several polls showing a surprising close race. If I toss Rasmussen polls from the pollster com smoother(because I don't like their results but at least I admit it) I get a pollster smoothed average showing a the Republicans ahead by 1.8%. This is mostly determined by ten polls in September five of which are polls of likely voters and five of which are polls of registered voters.

I'm pretty sure I'm over interpreting data and seeing what I want to see. I guess it's conceivable that recent Tea Party success in primaries have scared voters.

For some reason when I try to save the graph, I get the default graph including Rasmussen polls.

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