Tradesports offers me the graph of the price of a contract which 100 if the Republicans keep control of the senate (so is the percent probability as perceived by the marginal tradesports bettors)


alt="Price for Republican Party 2006 Mid Term Election Control at TradeSports.com"
title="Price for Republican Party 2006 Mid Term Election Control at TradeSports.com" border="0">
you can see a drop in the prob Repubs keep senate around 6:00 pm EST roughly the time of the first leaked exit polls at political wire (I can't get on the site it is flooded).





This is the long view showing responses to polls.


alt="Price for Republican Party 2006 Mid Term Election Control at TradeSports.com"
title="Price for Republican Party 2006 Mid Term Election Control at TradeSports.com" border="0">