RealClear Gallup Anomaly

Recently I have been compulsively going to www.realclearpolitics.com for the latest polls. Right now they show a huge gigantic Gallup anomaly with McCain ahead on average 7.5% in 2 Gallup polls and 0.8% in non Gallup polls. What the hell is going on ? Part if it is (like everyone as far as I can tell) realclearpolitics insists on reporting likely voter numbers if they are available. Gallup doesn't even report results for a likely voter sub-sample of its tracking poll (McCain + 5 among registered voters). This is, according to Gallup, real information. I see no reason to take it less seriously than the polls which show a closer rate and a clear reason to count it more than most as it has a huge sample size. On the other hand, Gallups headline number for the USA/Today Gallup polls is *not* McCain + 10 but McCain + 4 among registered voters.

Gallup makes it very very clear that they don't believe their likely voter filter is useful in early September (it has a very good record of performing well in late October). It is based on a few questions. One is "do you know exactly where to go to vote ?" If it is late October and someone doesn't know he or she is not likely to vote. Not true in September. The question removes the young and people who move around a lot. Other questions relate to enthusiasm and how closely one is following the election. Obviously these questions introduce bias right after a party convention (imagine they were 1) were you exited by the most recent convention and 2) did you watch a lot of it on TV then explain how they are really not like that).

Gallup knows this. Gallup says this in the strongest possible terms. At Gallup the headline is about the registered voter sample. Gallup didn't even release the sample size of the likely voter poll. Yet many organizations focus on the results with the likely voter sample. I suppose this is for "comparability" with other polls, but that is silly -- the Gallup likely voter filter is so different from that used by other agencies that the results are not comparable.

Note, however, that Gallup doesn't even report likely voter numbers for their tracking poll which also has a huge sample. The McCain +5 in the tracker is very important information. The McCain +10 in the USA today Gallup poll should not be reported, since Gallup insists that their best estimate based on the raw data in that poll is McCain + 4.

I am having trouble finding the Gallup report on the USA today Gallup poll but I just found this "Candidate support by educational attainment" Obama's support is lowest among the "high school or less" subsample. This fits the "elitist Democrats" line which the Republicans use when they mean "elite Democrats" so well that people might not notice that it is extraordinary. Normally support for the Democratic candidate is higher for "high school or less" than for "some college" or "college graduate" (which are usually quite similar, also Usually and for this election, support for the Dem is higher for "post graduate" than "some college" or "college graduate"). Obamas trouble (relative to the average Democrat) among people who never went to college is a sign that the elitist arugala idiocy issue is costing him.

Intellectual work induces excessive calorie intake

Quebec City, September 4, 2008—A Université Laval research team has demonstrated that intellectual work induces a substantial increase in calorie intake. The details of this discovery, which could go some way to explaining the current obesity epidemic, are published in the most recent issue of Psychosomatic Medicine.

The research team, supervised by Dr. Angelo Tremblay, measured the spontaneous food intake of 14 students after each of three tasks: relaxing in a sitting position, reading and summarizing a text, and completing a series of memory, attention, and vigilance tests on the computer. After 45 minutes at each activity, participants were invited to eat as much as they wanted from a buffet.

The researchers had already shown that each session of intellectual work requires only three calories more than the rest period. However, despite the low energy cost of mental work, the students spontaneously consumed 203 more calories after summarizing a text and 253 more calories after the computer tests. This represents a 23.6% and 29.4 % increase, respectively, compared with the rest period.

Blood samples taken before, during, and after each session revealed that intellectual work causes much bigger fluctuations in glucose and insulin levels than rest periods. "These fluctuations may be caused by the stress of intellectual work, or also reflect a biological adaptation during glucose combustion," hypothesized Jean-Philippe Chaput, the study's main author. The body could be reacting to these fluctuations by spurring food intake in order to restore its glucose balance, the only fuel used by the brain.

"Caloric overcompensation following intellectual work, combined with the fact that we are less physically active when doing intellectual tasks, could contribute to the obesity epidemic currently observed in industrialized countries," said Mr. Chaput. "This is a factor that should not be ignored, considering that more and more people hold jobs of an intellectual nature," the researcher concluded.

via Mark Thoma

Unusual, Extraordinary or Unique

In an article in the New York Times by Jim Rutenberg.

But the campaign’s attacks on the news media have been viewed by journalists and some strategists here as also serving tactical needs. Among them are to build a case that Ms. Palin is a victim of sexism, to change the subject, or, in the words of Leonard Downie Jr., the executive editor of The Washington Post, “to put boundaries on the press’s pursuit of the Palin story.”

I didn't know that editors criticized campaigns bluntly directly and for attribution in a competing newspaper.

It seems to me that Downie has decided that the McCain campaign has crossed a line and extraordinary measures are required. I might be ignorant, but I can't remember anything like that quote ever.

One sign of anger at McCain and Schmitt is the frankness about the MSMs closeness to McCain. The article begins with a description of top journalists celebrating Sen McCain's birthday with McCain (is it ethical for them to celebrate with public figures ? ) and ends noting how close they have been

“Probably no one in American politics over the last 20 years has had a closer relationship with the national press than John McCain,” said Albert R. Hunt, the executive Washington editor for Bloomberg News ...

Proof Palin Lied in the Washington Post

Also Maria Comella wins the all time faccia di bronza (chutzpa in Italian) award

"This trooper is still out on the street, in fact he's been promoted," said a Feb. 7, 2007, e-mail sent from Palin's personal Yahoo account and written to give Monegan permission to speak on a violent-crime bill before the state legislature.

"It was a joke, the whole year long 'investigation' of him," the e-mail said. [snip]

Asked about the e-mails, Palin's campaign spokeswoman, Maria Comella, said ... that there is no evidence that Palin ever ordered Wooten to be fired.

OK explain to me how objecting that he is still on the street and calling the investigation a joke doesn't add up to an order than he be fired ?

I knew the e-mails would contain convincing proof that Palin lied so long as their authenticity wasn't challenged. It is clear from Comella's reply that they admit that the e-mails are authentic. They combined with the fact that Palin said her administration put no pressure on Monegan concerning Wooten she had no knowledge that her aids and husband put pressure on Monegan concerning Wooten is enough to prove to her mother that she is a shameless liar.

Sarah Palin Elitist Snob

Glenn Greenwald notes the first Nexis hit for "Sarah Palin"

Gov. Palin's first statement quoted in the media

"We want to see Ivana [Trump]," said Palin, who admittedly smells like salmon for a large part of the summer, "because we are so desperate in Alaska for any semblance of glamour and culture."

quoted in an April 3, 1996 article in The Anchorage Daily News.

Digby has a chain e-mail from someone who claims be from Wasilla AK and who has many criticisms of Sarah Palin. One in particular would be very damaging if true and implies something verifiable which can and should be checked.

During her mayoral administration most of the actual work of running
this small city was turned over to an administrator. She had been
pushed to hire this administrator by party power-brokers after she had
gotten herself into some trouble over precipitous firings which had
given rise to a recall campaign.

The precipitous firings and recall campaign have been reported. The job description "amdinistrator" would appear in official records. If the position was established just when the recall campaign fizzled, the accusation becomes credible enough to justify on the scene reporting. I don't volunteer.

The awesome open mike discussion of Palin in which we find what Murphy and Noonan really think




transcript

Chuck Todd: Mike Murphy, lots of free advice, we'll see if Steve Schmidt and the boys were watching. We'll find out on your blackberry. Tonight voters will get their chance to hear from Sarah Palin and she will get the chance to show voters she's the right woman for the job Up next, one man who's already convinced and he'll us why Gov. Jon Huntsman.

(cut away)

Peggy Noonan: Yeah.

Mike Murphy: You know, because I come out of the blue swing state governor world: Engler, Whitman, Tommy Thompson, Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush. I mean, these guys -- this is how you win a Texas race, just run it up. And it's not gonna work. And --

PN: It's over.

MM: Still McCain can give a version of the Lieberman speech to do himself some good.

CT: I also think the Palin pick is insulting to Kay Bailey Hutchinson, too.

PN: Saw Kay this morning.

CT: Yeah, she's never looked comfortable about this --

MM: They're all bummed out.

CT: Yeah, I mean is she really the most qualified woman they could have turned to?

PN: The most qualified? No! I think they went for this -- excuse me-- political bullshit about narratives --

CT: Yeah they went to a narrative.

MM: I totally agree.

PN: Every time the Republicans do that, because that's not where they live and it's not what they're good at, they blow it.

MM: You know what's really the worst thing about it? The greatness of McCain is no cynicism, and this is cynical.

CT: This is cynical, and as you called it, gimmicky.

MM: Yeah.

--Josh Marshall

commentary from Yglesias

No doubt Peggy Noonan and Mike Murphy are just further examples of the liberal sexist snob smear machine:

Now it’s not especially remarkable that both Noonan and Murphy seem to have private views on this matter that are considerably less GOP friendly than the ones they’re comfortable expressing in public, but it is remarkable that that fact isn’t remarkable. In a sane world, one wouldn’t put talking heads on TV to express their opinions unless they were going to express their genuine opinions.

Republican operatives are invited to pretend to be journalists on TV. Of course they remain Republican operatives, but they are needed to ballance journalists given the blatant liberal bias of the facts.

Joe Leiberman Dunned

Anita Dunn notes "the continued moral degeneration of Joe Lieberman on display for the entire country to watch."




She proves her claim. Most remarkably, she comes off as a nice person while doing so. I have no idea how she managed (I come off as a dick-head when arguing abstract points).

More Anita Dunn please.

via atrios and firedoglake.

The 25th Column

or

Rumors off

I have heard a rumor that the left blogosphere was full of a rumor recently. For people who have lives, I would like to point out that I live the the left blogosphere and I learned about this rumored rumor from the McCain campaign.

Until they decided to complain about it, all I knew was that some commenter somewhere wrote "troopergate, bridgegate and babygate" causing me to think "huh what's babygate" and that Brad DeLong had a learned post on the furthest extremes of political paranoia referring to doubts about the maternity of the heir to James II. I had no idea why he was posting on that, but I often have no idea why Brad is posting on something which is part of why I read his blog.

Now I know that the rumor appeared in a dailyKos diary, which is at the level of some comment somewhere as anyone can be a dailykos diarist (I'm a dailykos diarist. are you a dailykos diarist ? If not why not ?). The diary was discussed at length by by Andrew Sullivan who referred to us as al Qaeda's fifth column. Now, since he supports Obama, he apparently counts as a liberal hence the 5th columns 5th column or 25th column.

This reminds me of the case of Larry Johnson of no quarter the ex CIA friend of Valerie Plame Wilson bitter opponent of George Bush and, now, Barack Obama who reminds us that, while Feith and Mylroi are crazier than the CIA, it is the organization that insisted that rocket casings were gas centrifuges.

I think the lesson is totally irresponsible idiocy iokiyar so watch out if they switch sides as the fact that they have been very successful doesn't mean they aren't irresponsible idiots.

Woman holding flower pepper sprayed by a Police officer in Minneapolis/St Paul

http://www.indybay.org/uploads/2008/09/01/pepper.mpg

My reaction was "Why don't they have serial numbers on their helmets ?"

My reaction to my reaction was "duh. They want to be able to commit acts of unprovoked violence with their faces hidden."

So why don't citizens require police riot gear to prominently display their badge number ? Do most of us want them to be free to commit unprovoked acts of violence against peaceful people who get on their nerves ?

Do I really want to know the answer to that question ?

Incoherent

Takes one to know one. The Washington Post Editorial Board accuses John McCain of having "failed to offer an wholly coherent case" . They should know.

They write "As opponents reversed long-held positions to appeal in ugly ways to anti-immigrant sentiment, Mr. McCain insisted on his more humane approach."

That would be the Mr McCain who said during a debate that he would vote against the comprehensive immigration bill bearing his name "no I would not".

The bill was then less old than the Palin administration in Alaska is, so I guess McCain's support for his bill wasn't long-held, but if saying he would vote against his own bill isn't a reversal, what would be a reversal ?

Ah yes a coherent reality based editorial in the Washington Post, now that would be a reversal

They go on "Over the course of his career, Mr. McCain has broken with his party and even risked his political future in the service of principle. Campaign finance, climate change, immigration, the Iraq war surge, opposition to torture"

OK lets see. On the surge he did not break with his party. He advocated it before Bush did, but the Republican party had no position. On campaign finance reform, he decided the current law is optional and that the opinion of the Republican head of the FEC that what he was doing (up until yesterday when the convention started) was illegal is just an opinion, on immigration he said he would vote against his own bill, on climate change is is for a gas tax holliday, drill here drill now and cap and trade so long as the caps aren't mandatory, on torture he voted to allow the CIA to torture.

McCain once had positions on the issues which appear to have been principled. He has abandoned each and every one of them in his desparate effort to be President.

The Washington Post used to have journalistic standards. Its editorial board has abandoned all of them. They simply deny inconvenient facts. I don't see how the reporters can stand their work appearing in the same newspaper as the words of that gang of shameless liars.

Foreign films, Western Cultural Influence, and Divorce in Japan.

by Tilman Tacke and Robert Waldmann



Globalization has caused a decrease in cultural distinctiveness. We find indications of a link between the divorce rate in Japan after 1955 and the market share of foreign films. Foreign films in Japanese cinema, including Hollywood productions, may act as importer of Western values. The market share of foreign films has predictive power for three periods of decreasing divorce rates as well as the general convergence of the low Japanese divorce rates to higher Western levels. Using Japanese box office data since 1955 we show that a higher market share of international films is not only associated with an increase in the number of divorces, but also a decrease in the number of marriages. Both effects are especially strong before the 1980s. We explain periods of increasing and decreasing market share of foreign films and divorce rate with historical changes in cultural relations between Japan and the Western world.


pdf here

Profile in Courage (beefy very beefy)

Ah he just walked off screen.

Here http://edition.cnn.com/video/live/live.html?stream=stream4 is was CNN's feed from Grande Isle where Gustav is hitting with uhm considerable force.

update: That link is now shut off

However this shows spray going over the Industrial canal flood wall (
the other side than the wall that failed in 2005).
http://edition.cnn.com/video/live/live.html?stream=stream4

My 11 year old and I were sympathising with the camera crew who are staying there for hours in the wind and rain in the hope of getting 10 seconds on the air.

Then this guy with a hand held camera walked into the extreme wind to film the main camera and its crew (showing how brave they are). He only got to be seen on the web I bet.

My daughter has decided not to work for CNN.

I noted that the daring camera man was well suited to the task as he is not uhm a lightweight.

Democracy^2

Nate Silver polls readers asking whether he should subtract the average convention bounce from polls before running them through his simulation.

Now web polls are very very unscientific, but I just love the willingness to attempt to make a blog democratic.

Imported Trolls

My posts never have as many comments as I would like (I don't even get much spam). I am a guest blogger over at angrybear.blogspot.com. Over there, we/they have plenty of commenters including trolls. I am importing a thread to comment on comments here on my homiest home turf. I add my labels in () to refer to comments.

Angry Bear PGL wrote a post on Mike Wooten the ex brother in law of Sarah Palin who is probably not enjoying his 15 minutes of fame. PGL concludes "this issue here is not whether Wooten is some sort of saint – he’s not. The issue is the unethical behavior of Governor Palin."

Comments begin with CoRev

Wow! Now we're up to six PGL anti-Palin smear articles. Why?
CoRev | Homepage | 08.31.08 - 7:06 am | (CoRev 1)

So when will PGL come acknowledge the issue about Obama's citizenship?

Remember, this is another Democrat filing the suit.

"Wow! Now we're up to six PGL anti-Palin smear articles. Why?"

Because he is a dishonest leftist. Lying and raping and corrupt government are cool if Bill Clinton or Ted Kennedy do it, but not Republicans.
dmarek | 08.31.08 - 7:36 am | (dmarek)

OK here dmarek comes close to being a commenter whose banning I would support. His argument contra PGL is pure ad hominem. He clearly slanders Ted Kennedy who has never been accused of rape. I'd say he also slanders Bill Clinton who was accused *after* his impeachment by Anita Brodderick who presented no evidence and did not explain why she waited until it was clear that non perjury and alleged obstuction of justice weren't going to be enough to get Clinton to come up with her accusation. DMarek changed the subject and, worse, changed it to the Clenis (casually adding the completely unsupported accusation against Kennedy) in order to attack the character of PGL rather than respond to his arguments. He also tosses in another red herring about Obama's citizenship which has not been questioned even by other wing nuts (they ask if he is US born which he is as proven by a birth certificate (did Lincoln present such proof) and is not legally relevant as demonstrated by the case of John McCain who was certainly not born in the USA not that it matters.

Now I suppose one could just ignore DMarek if one were more self disciplined than I am, but he is rude, lowers the level of debate and is clearly not interested in contributing anything to the discussion of the topic.

Non troll comment.

2slugbaits feeding the troll.

dmarek,

Obama is a citizen. He is a natural born citizen. The only candidate in this race who was not born in the United States is John McCain. You see, John McCain flunked geography when he was a kid and he thinks the Panama Canal Zone is one of the 50 states.
2slugbaits | 08.31.08 - 8:27 am | #

2slugbaits replied to DMarek's crazy off topic allegation. A constructive contribution to an irrelevant debate. Shows it is hard to ignore even the most blatant trolls (even for people other than Robert Waldmann).

Can we have the troll dmarek moderated? His lies pollute every thread he posts on.
Joel | 08.31.08 - 8:36 am | #

Good question. I think the word "lies" is completely justified by the allegation that Ted Kennedy is a rapist -- this is supported by absolutely zero evidence even counting obvious lies in the first person as evidence.ù

"John McCain flunked geography when he was a kid and he thinks the Panama Canal Zone is one of the 50 states."

Having perhaps our next President being confused about the geography of Latin America doesn't worry me. That John McCain is confused about the geography of the Middle East does worry me.
pgl | 08.31.08 - 8:58 am | #
pgl,

Are you referring to Baghdad being the capital of Iran, or are you referring to the Iraq/Pakistan border?
2slugbaits | 08.31.08 - 9:05 am | #

A cheap shot. The reference to the non-existent Iraq/Pakistan border was clearly a slip of the tongue.

Non troll, non troll feeding non troll bait comment.

Let's see, Palin goes on a campaign, to have what to some is a out of control State trooper, fired. A trooper who she and her family were very close, so had heard many more of his ?stories? than any investigative bodies. A trooper who was admittedly punished for making a threat to shoot his father-in-law. Most of which happened before she was Governor.

Let me pose this question. Would you like such a trooper in your jurisdiction? Protecting you from people, umh - err, like himself?
CoRev | Homepage | 08.31.08 - 9:59 am | #

I would consider this neither being a troll nor arguing convincingly. It is on topic and reasoned. It is not convincing, because it assumes (doesn't argue assumes) that relatives are best qualified to judge relatives as they have more expertise. The more widespread view is that relatives have a conflict of interest and should recuse themselves. The view which CoRev dismisses without argument is rarely debated, because it is generally considered obvious and expressed in law and centuries of judicial practice (basically every recusal there has ever been). I'd like to ask CoRev why he (or she) doesn't support having defendants judged by their mothers who know them better than 12 strangers do.

Also note no reference to the fact that Palin lied about her administrations involvement in the case.

Finally note that only the outcome (Wooten out) counts for CoRev, not the procedure. To me this is bad reasoning. We are trying to figure out what Palin would do as President (like Palin I don't know exactly what the Vice President does except wait (Cheney excepted)). We find that she intervenes when she has a personal interest in a matter, lies about it and fires apparently qualified people who aren't "Loyal" that is to say who don't obey improper requests. These aspects of the case are more useful for predicting the future than are the faults of Wooten (note PGL started the discussion of Wooten before arguing that facts about him matter little to voters' upcoming decisions)

I'd classify the argument as ridiculous special pleading. I can't believe that CoRev would have made such an absurd argument if not motivated by partisanship. However, an extremely bad argument can be useful as it makes us think about what is wrong with the argument.

So disagreeing with the poster check
bad reasoning check
special pleading check
outspoken check

a Troll ? absolutely not. Trolldom has nothing to do with the aspects of CoRev's comment (as perceived by me) listed above.

non troll, troll feeding or troll bait comment.

Do you want your next VP to come from a state where such behavior is rather typical? Where dad goes off moose hunting with the oh-so-excellent trooper Wooten? Really, she looks pretty and all, but she's been governor of 600K Alaskans for less than two years, and she has stated that she is committed to furthering the interests of Alaska while in office. McCain is no spring chicken. I'll pass on the possibility of Palin being my president.
bk | 08.31.08 - 10:04 am | #

I've deleted more than one bk comment above for excessive reasonableness, but this is getting close to troll bait. For one thing there are more than 600K Alaskans. The claim about what Palin has stated should be supported with a link etc.

pgl,

I don't see much new material. But Keep on shaking that tree if you must.
Aaron | 08.31.08 - 10:21 am | #

Way not at all a trollish comment.

CoRev,

Palin lied about her involvement in trying to get the trooper fired. She also intervened to get the results of an internal investigation reversed. She's Nixon Redux.
2slugbaits | 08.31.08 - 10:38 am | #

2slugbaits,

Palin never lied. She never got an TV and wagged her finger at the camera saying "I never tried to get the trooper fired".

And the benchmark today for a president that lies is Bill Clinton, not Nixon.
Aaron | 08.31.08 - 11:42 am | #

Aaron,

She lied and the audio recordings prove that she lied.
2slugbaits | 08.31.08 - 12:07 pm | #

2slugbaits is right

Palin, who has previously said her administration didn't exert pressure to get rid of trooper Mike Wooten, also disclosed that members of her staff had made about two dozen contacts with public safety officials about the trooper.

Palin now claims that she didn't know about 2 dozen calls from members of her staff which she had incorrectly claimed never occurred. The claim that she lied is not proven, beyond reasonable doubt in the sense that, even if she had been under oath she should not be convicted of perjury , but it is a fair summary of the evidence.

Aaron gets a point off for the irrelevant Clenis reference. Still he is being sloppy about facts which were very obscure until recently and not being a troll.
I'd offer some friendly advice for Aaron -- check the facts before making definite claims on points of fact. You have certainly lost all credibility over at AngryBear, because of your sloppiness. You can still argue there but google before you type (and give links).

***Let me pose this question. Would you like such a trooper in your jurisdiction? Protecting you from people, umh - err, like himself?***
CoRev

No, but if the guy were my Brother in Law, I'd have the good sense to recuse myself from any involvement in government handling the affair. I suspect that in the same position you would also. Trust me CoRev, this country does NOT need a Vice President who is dumber than you and I are.
vtcodger | 08.31.08 - 12:52 pm | #

See what I mean about how bad non troll arguments lead to valid interesting counter arguments.

Non troll link to a poll by Sammy.

Yes Aaron LIED when he asserted that Palin did not lie but that's not as bad as this spin from CoRev:

"Let's see, Palin goes on a campaign, to have what to some is a out of control State trooper, fired. A trooper who she and her family were very close"

Wooten and Palin's sister were going through a bitter divorce. CoRev knows this but tries to spin it otherwise. CoRev - if you have to be so dishonest to participate in a discussion, might I suggest that you don't participate.

The way the trolls here lie to defend abuse of power, I have to wonder if they were party of Tricky Dick's gang in a former life.
pgl | 08.31.08 - 1:42 pm | #

Uh oh, pgl is a fellow angry bear. To air dirty linen in public
1) Aaron's claim was false, but there is no reason to believe he knew it to be false (not like Palin's claim which was probably to almost certainly a lie). Accusing Aaron of lying is not helpful. Also ALL CAPS ???

CoRev is spinning. This is not lying either. I mean Aaron and CoRev are leading with their chins, there is no need to call them trolls or accuse them of lying.

Sammy - I'd like to see that poll once the press starts reporting on TrooperGate!
pgl | 08.31.08 - 1:43 pm | #

pgl,

If you think "Troopergate" will derail her, you are indeed deranged. Early-onset Palin Derangement Syndrome!!!!

You need to "Dan Quayle" her, that has a chance of working.
sammy | 08.31.08 - 1:58 pm | #

sammy,
If you think Troopergate shouldn't derail her then you have to be deranged...or almost as bad, just a red team cheerleader. What she did is far more corrupting than the kind of run-of-the-mill payola corruption that plagues the rest of the Alaskan GOP. This is Nixonian. She used her political power to even up personal grudges.
2slugbaits | 08.31.08 - 2:12 pm | #

2slugbaits,

If you think Troopergate shouldn't derail her then you have to be deranged

OK why did Sammy introduce the word "deranged" to the thread ? How can that be helpful ? I disagree on the issue as I think that Palin's lies will be demonstrated (Monegan has e-mails which he has handed over to the investigators). Worse the investigation is scheduled to be completed in late October. This isn't about Wootin or even Monegan, it is about lying, conflict of interest (oh and using the state AG for personal reasons to run a investigation of what the official investigation will find).

You're not voting for our guy, so your advice is noted and dismissed.
Aaron | 08.31.08 - 2:31 pm | #

I don't find the referenced advice. My inclination to oppose banning Aaron is reduced (but not eliminated) by the fact that he declares he is uninterested in listening to Democrats (so why is he at AngryBear ?).

On experience and termperment Barak Obama is a bit of a joke. Sarah Palin has more executive experience then Obama, more experience on energy, and since international affairs are likely to have energy supplies as a key component, her work in the pipeline gives her incites on the major issues of international politics. Incites that Barak Obama does not have.

If you want a guy to create a midnight basketball program in the South side of Chicago then maybe Barak is your guy, but Palen played basketball too, and she was pretty good at it.

So you can flip a coin to choosewho is more qualified to be vice president between Palin and Obama. But I vote mainly for the number one slot on the ticket and that's John McCain.
Aaron | 08.31.08 - 2:40 pm | #

This, in contrast, is another interestingly bad argument. The rhetorical trick is to attempt to link experience and temperament with the feeble approach of putting the word "and" between them. Obama has little experience. His choosing a vice presidential candidate after talking to her for 20 minutes total shows that John McCain has a temperament totally unsuited to the Presidency.

A more plausible false linkage would be say "age and maturity". Again an invalid argument as McCain is older than Obama but he doesn't seem to be mature at all. One could argue who is more mature (to me it is obvious that Obama is more mature) but an assertion without any evidence or argument is dumb.

The South Side basketball reference is borderline racist. It is, again, dumb. Obama has presented highly detailed policy proposals -- we can judge his ability to interact with experts. He has debated and debated and debated with experienced senators and top flight lawyers. He hasn't embarassed himself in a debate yet (IIRC) he is clearly extremely smart *and* knowledgable. Simply asserting otherwise is useful in a TV ad but not sensible in a comment thread, because there at Angrybear there are people who know the facts and have a way to argue back.

Aaron,

If McCain wins, then it becomes everyone's problem, not just your guy's problem.

BTW, the Washington Post has just sent two of its reporters to Alaska to work this issue full time. Can the NYTs be far behind? Perhaps they smell blood in the water. Once again those audio tapes are coming back to haunt a corrupt GOP politician.
2slugbaits | 08.31.08 - 2:40 pm | #

Aaron,

her work in the pipeline gives her incites on the major issues of international politics. Incites that Barak Obama does not have.

Your twice over Freudian slip proves my point. You're right, she will "incite" international issues in a way that Obama won't. I quite agree.

As to McCain being knowledgeable in foreign affairs, does this mean he now knows that there is no common border between Iraq and Pakistan? Has he figured out that Baghdad is not the capital of Iran? What will he do without Lieberman at his side to correct all of his gaffes?
2slugbaits | 08.31.08 - 2:45 pm | #

As narrow and rigid as the Republican party is, one would have to be a cardboard cutout not to be a maverick in it. I think she will strengthen support from the social and cultural base of the party but I don't see any appeal beyond that. Her own policies don't matter much since she just has to become a mouthpiece for McCain, and since he doesn't have many policies, there is not too much for her to learn. It does leave McCain without any economic credentials since she is at most his understudy. I wonder is she is as gaffe prone as McCain. Could be amusing.
Lord | 08.31.08 - 3:09 pm | #

Now I get it. Not having read most threads, I was puzzled to read e-mails from angry bears concerned about a possible troll infestation. OK I see we have at least one troll here -- dmarek.

Now I think the best thing to do is ignore him or her as all but one commenter up thread has done. I wouldn't actually have any problem with banning dmarek (and I am a free speech fanatic). I will try to explain at my blog, http://rjwaldmann.blogspot.com, why I think dmarek may have crossed a line which Aaron and corev didn't cross (at least not in this thread).

The few regular readers of my blog will not be pleased to learn that I rank posts there below comments here, but, hey, I do, this comment is already over long and off topic and it will be very long before I am done.
Robert Waldmann | Homepage | 08.31.08 - 3:41 pm | #


OK I still think that Aaron is not a troll. He makes on topic arguments. He isn't any ruder than the people who argue with him (a high standard). His arguments can't stand up to criticism, and he makes them in a setting where they will be criticized. This doesn't lower the level of debate, since Aaron's arguments are similar to those made by the McCain campaign in settings where they don't face the devastating counter arguments.

I have no idea what Aaron's motivation is, but I don't think he is trolling. Does he enjoy losing debates ? does he think he is convincing anyone ? I don't know but I'd say he is so useful that if he didn't exist we would have to invent him.

Strange Doctrines formerly known as meta and meta (half and half)

A strange and very nice blog whose author, Michael Drake, just blogrolled me. If you don't click the link I will go on strike (is that a threat or a promise?).

McCain Campaign Emergency Room

John Goodman has a proposal to end the problem of uninsured people in the USA

Mr. Goodman, who helped craft Sen. John McCain’s health care policy, said anyone with access to an emergency room effectively has insurance, albeit the government acts as the payer of last resort. (Hospital emergency rooms by law cannot turn away a patient in need of immediate care.)

“So I have a solution. And it will cost not one thin dime,” Mr. Goodman said. “The next president of the United States should sign an executive order requiring the Census Bureau to cease and desist from describing any American – even illegal aliens – as uninsured. Instead, the bureau should categorize people according to the likely source of payment should they need care. “So, there you have it. Voila! Problem solved.”

The McCain campaign denied that Goodman was a McCain adviser unpaid or otherwise. When asked by TNR's Jonathan Cohn why he was identified as a McCain adviser in the byline to a Wall Street Journal op ed (an official source on whose who among Republicans and conservatives) the campaign argued, in substance that

Earlier this summer the campaign informed Mr. Goodman that his advice was not required and requested that he not identify himself as being associated with the campaign in any way, including as a volunteer.

This makes me wonder exactly how much ealier. Five minutes before the McCain campaign e-mailed Cohn would indeed be "earlier this summer" as well as "earlier today" and "earlier this millenium". Did they dumb him before or after he stepped in it ? Enquiring minds want to know.

From Comments OK from comment as there is only one which I quote here in full

Bruce Webb has left a new comment on your post "McCain Campaign Emergency Room John Goodman has a...":

Plus what is this about 'insurer of last resort'? The government does mandate that hospital emergency rooms treat all who show up, but it certainly doesn't pick up the tab. Instead the patient will be dunned for all costs until they are driven into bankruptcy or at a minimum lose all credit.

The price of taking your kid to the emergency room if you have no way to pay may well end up with you not being able to pass a credit check to rent an apartment in the future, or buy a car, or given the insurance industry's new found reliance on pricing insurance depending on credit rating, being able to minimally insure the beater you are now driving.

This guy is either divorced from ordinarily reality or so uncaring as to be practically sociopathic. Why not just wave away hunger on the basis that most towns have food banks and/or unlocked dumpsters behind the supermarket?

I might add that emergency rooms are required to treat patients only until they are "stabilized." A physician who happens to be my mother told me (without naming the patient or violating confidientiality) that in one case this consisted of using an ACE bandage to treat a broken foot. The ER doc had said surgery was needed before finding out that the patient was uninsured. My mom works for the county and takes care of uninsured patients with HIV.

update II: Minds think alike

Paul Krugman writes "But now that there’s a stink, the campaign says that he hasn’t been advising them since “earlier this summer.” (How much earlier?) "

Brad DeLong agrees with Matthew Yglesias

This tends to uhm strongly suggest that they are both right, but I beg to differ.

The question is whether the Gallup tracking poll fluctuations which totally control my mood are due to sampling error alone. I say no.

Brad writes something along the lines of "yes" or "don't panic"

You can't back out daily polls but you can test the null that true opinion hasn't changed. for non overlapping polls this is easy. variance of Obama - McCain in one poll is around 1/3000 (less than 1/(sample size) because some people are undecided so the correlation of "for Obama" and "for McCain" is not exactly -1). Var of dif of dif is about 1/1500 so se of dif of dif is about 2.7% (just tried to calculate a square root in my head).

With one day overlap you can calculate the change in 2 day averages (3/2)(change in 3 day as one day is the same). So about 10% convention bounce so far. sample sizes only around 1800 so var dif around 1/2000 so var dif of dif around 1/1000 se around 3.2% so change over 3 standard deviations. The evidence of a convention bounce (including Michelle and Hillary but not Bill and Joe) is statistically significant.

People do change their minds based on cheering Germans, dumb dumber dumbest negative ads and party conventions. Those people might be so flighty that there is no way to guess what the hell they will do on election day, but they do exist.

"Normal fluctuations which you shouldn't have a cow about because they tell you virtually nothing about who will be elected" and "fluctuations due to sampling error" are not synonymous statements.

John McCain is Doubling Down, Upping the Ante, Playing Double or Nothing but at least he isn't and Metaphrs

From the now famous Time interview

"You were a very enthusiastic supporter of the invasion of Iraq and, in the early stages, of the Bush Administration's handling of the war. Are those judgments you'd like to revisit?
Well, my record is clear. I believe that the world is better off without Saddam Hussein. I believe it's clear that he had every intention to acquire and use weapons of mass destruction. [snip]

Before the war McCain claimed that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction and that he might give them to terrorists. Now that it is known that he had no weapons of mass destruction, McCain claims that "it's clear that he had every intention to ... use weapons of mass destruction". Much less supporting evidence implies a much stronger claim.

I think I understand what is going on. To McCain frankness and uhm "leadership ability" is shown by pushing back. He often makes absurd claims when challenged (got to watch that during the debates Senator -- I doubt I'm the only one who has noticed). Also thousands of US lives, hundreds of thousands or Iraqi lives and hundreds of billions of dollars later, the war is a harder sell and more absurd claims are needed.

The bit about Saddam Hussein attempting to acquire WMD is actually more absurd than the claim which I didn't elide. WMD include chemical and biological weapons which, we know, Saddam could acquire, because he had acquired them before destroying them. No one thought that his capacity to make such weapons had been eliminated (nor had it been eliminated if you count what was counted as WMD).

Most people correctly focus on the news that James Carney and Michael Scherer asked toughish questions, that McCain was rude in response *and* that Time played the story as "McCain has changed" and didn't let it slide off the teflon. Still I think it is also worth noting the non news that he is still insane.

Interesting Article Discovering What Al Gore Said Last Month

In today's New York Times Matthew Wald notes that US ability to use wind and solar power is restrained by the limits of the US power grid. He quotes many people describing this problem notably not including Al Gore who appears only as someone with expansive dreams who seems to be involved with keeping a dirty little secret.

Expansive dreams about renewable energy, like Al Gore’s hope of replacing all fossil fuels in a decade, are bumping up against the reality of a power grid that cannot handle the new demands.

The dirty secret of clean energy is that while generating it is getting easier, moving it to market is not.

O so the limits of the grid are an argument against Al Gore ? He's real famous, if it's a dirty little secret he must be keeping it secret. Now I thought that Gore stressed the need for an improved grid. One minute of googling later (first try googled :al Gore electric grid 4th hit)

Al Gore July 17 2008

To be sure, reaching the goal of 100 percent renewable and truly clean electricity within 10 years will require us to overcome many obstacles. At present, for example, we do not have a unified national grid that is sufficiently advanced to link the areas where the sun shines and the wind blows to the cities in the East and the West that need the electricity. Our national electric grid is critical infrastructure, as vital to the health and security of our economy as our highways and telecommunication networks. Today, our grids are antiquated, fragile, and vulnerable to cascading failure. Power outages and defects in the current grid system cost US businesses more than $120 billion dollars a year. It has to be upgraded anyway.

Of course Gore stressed the need to upgrade the grid as something that would require public action and, probably, federal intervention (at least with subsidies). Not only did I find this with my first google search, but it seems to be the post where Al Gore first described his expansive dream which specifically included improving the grid.

Now I understand that it gets boring to write again and again "Al Gore was right and furthermore I just learned things that I could have learned from him if I paid attention" still it seems to me that Matthew Wald risks becoming the Hiroo Onoda of the war on Gore.