Thursday, November 11, 2010

How well did my predictions do compared to those of highly paid pundits ?

Several pundits didn't do all that well as noted by MediaMatters (via Benen)

I made the following predictions on September 15
http://tinyurl.com/2wh46pn (predictions down in the comment thread).


"I guess R gain 5-6 (which is huge given the fact that this election is 6 years after 2004).

To go way out on a limb, I guess R pickups in ND, AR, IN
PA & IL and 0 D pickups. You will notice that compared to polls I am predicting poor perfromance [SIC TSW*] for tea partiers (so lose NV and Co). "

I didn't see Feingold's loss in Wisconsin coming, but there was almost no polling before September 15 and almost no discussion (I admit Cook had moved it to toss up).

So

Republicans gain 5 or 6 Correct
Hoeven wins in ND Correct
Boozman wins in AR Correct
Coates wins in IN Correct
Kirk wins in IL Correct
Toomey wins in PA Correct
Bennet wins in CO Correct
Reid wins in NV Correct

Unless someone can find other predictions which I made, that's 8 out of 8. Now in the main post I discussed the possibility that the narrative would be Tea Party ruins Republican chances in the Senate. In fact the narrative is Democrats Shellacked in House.


*So I can't type So what

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