Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Presidential Polling Perplexities

Who is more electable Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama ?

In national polls Obama matches up better against Republicans.

However, there are a large number of state level polls with awful news for Obama. No one seems to notice because, even though the sample size from pooled state polls is huge compared to the sample size of national polls. I found out late because poll reporting sites tend to demand money for state level polls.

I am very alarmed by some SurveyUSA polls like this horror (from May 2) which shows Giuliani beating Obama in Massachusetts !!?!??!

This (again May 2 may have been a bad day for Barack) from Virginia

This 10% behind in deep purple New Mexico

thin 1% lead in must win California

5% in must win Iowa

Giuliani by 6 in Minnesota

Well you get the picture. All from May 2 (a very bad day for Barack).

IIRC this was the peak of Giuliani mania but Clinton polls much better against Giuliani in all of these states. These are all surveyUSA polls but each has a separate sample.

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