Bush 47.8 Kerry 45.6 is the population weighted average of the average post 10/20 poll at http://2.004k.com in each state. The standard error due to sampling alone is around 0.56%.

Rundown of fairly close states as of 10/30 using polls since 10/20

……………….Kerry… Bush… number of polls

Florida…… 46.1..… 47.4.… 11
Iowa…….. 46.8… 48.6… 5
Michigan….. 49.6… 45..… 5
Minnesota…. 45..… 44.5… 2
Missouri….. 45.4… 49.8… 5
Nevada……. 45.25..… 50… 4
New Hampshire 49.6… 43.7… 2
New Jersey… 47..… 40.7… 3
Ohio……… 48.3… 46.3… 7
Oregon……. 49.6 … 44.6….. 5
Pennsylvania. 48.8… 45… 11
Wisconsin…. 48….. 47….. 1

one old poll which I left in by mistake has been removed from the Michigan average.

The population weighted average of the average state poll completed on or before 10/10 is
Bush 47.5 % Kerry 45.8 % with a standard error due to sampline alone of about 0.43 %

There has not been any noticible trend.