Average of state polls taken after 10/10 as of 10/24

Updates for Arkansas, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, Pennsylvania and South Carolina and USA which is the population weighted average. The USA average has

a standard error of the difference Bush-Kerry of about 0.6% (this corresponds to the MOE as reported by pollsters)

……………Kerry… Bush… number of polls

USA………. 46….. 47.3

Alabama…...32..… 56..… 1
Alaska……. 30..… 57..… 1
Arizona…… 42.3… 50..… 3
Arkansas….. 46..… 49..… 4
California… . 53.7… 41.7… 3
Colorado….. 44..… 49.2… 6
Conneticut… 47..… 38..… 1
Delaware….. 45..… 38..… 1
D.C………. .. 78..… 11..… 1
Florida…..… 46.3… 46.8… 10
Georgia…… 39.8… 54.3… 4
Hawai……... 43.8… 44.7 … 2
Idaho……..... 30..… 59..… 1
Illinois….. .... 51.5… 42..… 2
Indiana…… ..38.5.... 56..… 2
Iowa……...... 45.4… 47.9… 8
Kansas....... 38..... 57..... 1
Kentucky….. 38..… 57.5. 2
Louisiana….. 31.9… 50..… 1
Maine…….. ..50.5… 42..… 2
Maryland…... 51..… 42..… 1
Massachusetts 50..… 36..… 1
Michigan…..... 48.2… 44,4… 8
Minnesota….. 46.2… 44.7… 6
Mississippi.. .. 42..… 51..… 1
Missouri...….. 45.3… 49.8… 4
Montana….… 34..… 56….. 2
Nebraska…... 30..… 61….. 1
Nevada…….. 43.4..… 49.6… 4
New Hampshire 47..… 55.6… 5
New Jersey… .. 47.6… 42.3… 7
New Mexico… .. 46..… 47.5… 2
New York….. ... 58..… 35….. 1
North Carolina ..47..… 50….. 1
North Dakota. .. 33..… 62….. 1
Ohio……… ..... 47.6… 46.4… 12
Oklahoma…. ... 33.3… 59.8… 4
Oregon……. ... 49.5… 45….. 8
Pennsylvania. . 47.5… 44.6… 8
Rhode Island. .. 56..… 36….. 1
South Carolina .41..… 54….. 2
South Dakota. . 42..… 52….. 1
Tennessee…. . 38.5… 55….. 2
Texas…….. ..... 37..… 60….. 1
Utah……......… 27..… 64….. 1
Vermont…....… 53..… 40….. 1
Virginia….. ...... 46..… 50….. 1
Washington..… 50.3… 45.3… 3
West Virginia... 44.5… 48….. 2
Wisconsin…. .. 46.2… 46.2… 9
Wyoming…..… 29..… 65….. 1

Average poll post 10/10 for each state. Data from http://www.electoralvote.com and http://2.004k.com

update: I forgot the critical state rundown. No change since yesterday. In fact hardly any change since 2000. It looks distinctly possible that the only consonants which will appear in states that change on whether they want to send George to the White House are W and H ! That is Ohio yes to no, Iowa no to yes and maybe (seems incredible but it's 2 polls now) Hawaii no to yes. Of course a W H state switch will deprive poor George of the White House.

update2: Indiana corrected Kansas added