September 30 average poll on the front page of pollingreport.com

A newly reported Pew Poll withBush by 8 and a new ICR poll with Bush by 10 (ten!) moves
Bush to 48 6/7 Kerry 43 4/7 so, assuming about 2% Nader, kerry would win 49 1/7 to 48 6/7 if all undecided voters voted for Kerry, that is to conclude that the race is tied one would have to assume that 1 in 39 undecided voters would vote for Bush.

Also the Rasmussen tracking poll has move to Bush by 4, so it doesn't make much difference.

uh oh.