28 September average poll on the first page of www.pollingreport.com
gives Bush 48 3/4 % Kerry 44 1/12 % so if Nader gets about two percent and all undecided voters vote for Kerry, Kerry wins by 0.5% If 5% of undecided voters will vote for Bush, the race is tied.
Rasmussen has Bush 47.9 % Kerry 46.3%. Including Rasmussen to consider the race tied one would have to expect 8% of undecided voters to vote for Bush.

The change at polling report is the new TIPP poll which shows the mutlicandidate race tied (Kerry ahead 1% in the two way race). As always, I take multicandidate if available (that is except for CBS and Fox) and Likely voter polls if available (that is except CBS and NBC/WSJ). The 12 polls in the average are Tipp, Gallup, ABC/WP, Time, Fox, CBS, GWU, AP, Marist, GQRR(Dem corps), NBC/WSJ and Zogby.