Did the Republicans manage to overestimate what they could get away with ?

I was amazed to read in a Fox news poll (yes a Fox news poll) that slightly more polled registered voters (31%) think the Medicare bill will be bad for senior citizens than think it will be good for senior citizens (30%).

Now the general view in the blogosphere is that this was a bad bill compared, at least, to equally cheap bills with fewer favors for insurance companies. I assumed that it would be politically popular. So it seems did Paul Krugman and the Republicans on speaking terms with him.

"The prevailing theory among grown-up Republicans — yes, they still exist — seems to be that Mr. Bush is simply doing whatever it takes to win the next election."

If the medicare bill is unpopular, it would be part of whatever it takes to win the next election.