Robert's Stochastic thoughts

Bush 47.55% Kerry 45.9 % difference 1.65% standard error of difference due to sampling error alone about 0.5% is the population weighte...

A good start Bush did make one excellent point "A political candidate who jumps to conclusions without knowing the facts is not who...

Al Qa Qaa Hypotheticals It is now clear that at least some of the HMX and RDX were present in al Qa Qaa when US forces arrived. Thus ...

Consequentialism and consequences Matt mauls another fool "Will Wilkinson... asks "Could it be that the sort of person li...

Drunken thoughts too at the moment I just drank a bottle of wine (very cheap and not bad). Now I am not so abstemious that a little alcho...

Bush 47.5% Kerry 46 % is the population weighted average of the average post 10/10 poll by state (only one observation per tracking poll mo...

The Circular Firing Squad of Flying Attack Monkeys II Hovering around a pile of HMX and RDX and firing away at it. Josh Marshall quote...

Qa Qaa profondo per Bush II English translation deep do do for Bush II . The Spelling is wrong so maybe more like deep ...

I predict Kerry will be elected president. There is a chance of a major event, but I will risk my prediction now. Popular Vote Kerr...

Joshua Marshall quotes the Nelson Report "Some 350 tons of high explosives ( RDX and HMX ), which were under IAEA seal while Sadda...

Has Comrade Yglesias committed a thought crime ? He writes "at the risk of getting my liberal card taken away, I don't think in...

The W.H. race In the post below I have a lot of numbers and an aweful joke. Here I repeat the joke. It looks possible that only states w...

Average of state polls taken after 10/10 as of 10/24 Updates for Arkansas , Florida , Hawaii , Illinois , Iowa , Kentucky , Maine , M...

Average poll post 10/10 for each state. Data from http://www.electoralvote.com and http://2.004k.com Critical state run down. I will a...

What Mark Kleiman did (divided by 10). WWW.winbackrespect.com claims that an ad which contrasts Bush's clowning about WMD for the corr...

Bush 47.3% Kerry 46 % standard error of difference about 0.6% is the population weighted average across states of the average poll taken...

Bush 47.8% Kerry 46.3 % standard error of difference about 0.6% is the result of averaging state level polls taken after October 10 (if av...

Bush 47.8 % Kerry 46.4 % population weighted average state level poll from October (max one per agency latest in Sept if none in Oct. ...

Bush 47.57 % Kerry 46.37% Meta analysis of state polls II As of 10:18 AM Rome time State polls for October have a population weighted a...

The past couple of days have been tough for Sinclair broadcasting, but let's look at the longer run here . Here we see that in the ...